ARMENIA’S TRADE BALANCE, 2010–2024: GOODS AND SERVICES DECOMPOSITION

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics of Armenia’s trade balance over 2010–2024 with a focus on the structural gap in trade in goods and the growing compensating role of services. Using official statistics, the study documents a persistently negative goods balance, with the deficit widening in absolute terms during the post-2022 scale-up of trade flows. At the same time, the balance of trade in services shifts from a moderate deficit in the early 2010s to a large surplus after 2022, partially offsetting the goods deficit. A benchmark comparison with selected small open economies shows that persistent external deficits are common, while Armenia’s balance improves markedly by 2023. The findings highlight a dual external structure: goods deficit and services surplus.